THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(7) Duke (25-5, 14-14-1 ATS) at (2) North Carolina (26-3, 11-16 ATS)
Duke takes a five-game winning streak (3-2 ATS) down the road to Chapel Hill looking to avoid getting swept by its archrivals and hoping to grab a share of the ACC title. On Tuesday, the Blue Devils barely edged Florida State 84-81, falling way short as a 12½-point home favorite, ending a 3-0 ATS run. Duke’s offense has sprung to life lately, scoring 72 points or more in eight straight games since a demoralizing 74-47 loss at Clemson.
North Carolina outlasted Virginia Tech 86-78 on Wednesday, but failed to cover as a 9½-point road favorite. The Tar Heels, who will clinch the outright league title with a victory today, have won two in a row and 12 of their last 13, but they’ve been a betting disaster of late, cashing just seven times in their last 21 games, going 3-8 ATS at home during this stretch.
The Tar Heels sit alone atop the ACC standings at 12-3 (5-10 ATS), one game clear of Duke (11-4, 7-8 ATS). UNC is 6-1 in conference home games but just 2-5 ATS, while the Blue Devils are 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS on the highway, though they have won and covered in their last two conference roadies.
North Carolina rallied from an eight-point halftime deficit at Duke on Feb. 11, outscoring the Blue Devils 57-35 in the second half en route to a 101-87 victory as a two-point road chalk. The Tar Heels have taken control of this storied rivalry in recent years, winning five of the last six meetings and cashing in six of the last seven, but last year Duke went to the Dean Dome and scored an 89-78 victory as a 4½-point road underdog.
Also in this series, the ‘dog is on a 12-4 ATS roll and the visitor is 6-1 (5-2 ATS) in the last seven. Finally, from 2004-07, these rivals played seven games decided by a total of 27 points. However, the last three meetings had victory margins of 14, 11, eight and 14 points.
The Tar Heels’ ATS slumps of 1-4 overall, 3-8 at home and 0-4 on Sunday are offset by pointspread streaks of 7-3 after a non-cover and 13-5 at home against teams with a winning road record. Duke is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 against opponents whose winning percentage is greater than .600 and 1-4 ATS in its last five after a non-cover.
The over is 6-1 in the last seven Duke-Carolina clashes and 6-1 in the last seven tussles in Chapel Hill. Additionally, the Tar Heels are on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall (all in the ACC), 4-1 at home, 6-1 against winning teams, 8-2 after a SU win, 21-8 after a non-cover and 13-4 on Sunday. Duke is on “over” stretches of 6-2 overall, 5-0 after a non-cover and 6-1 against winning teams, but otherwise the Blue Devils sport “under” trends of 6-2 on the road, 14-5 in ACC play, 11-4 after a victory and 11-5 on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
(19) Purdue (22-8, 12-14 ATS) at (8) Michigan State (24-5, 14-11-1 ATS)
Michigan State, which has already clinched the outright Big Ten regular-season title, is riding a four-game winning streak and is 7-1 in its last eight (5-3 ATS). The Spartans wrapped up their first outright league crown this decade with Tuesday’s 64-59 win at Indiana, falling way short as a 14-point road chalk. Tom Izzo’s team has scored 64 points or fewer in five of its last six outings and has alternated ATS wins and losses during this six-game stretch.
Purdue is coming off Wednesday’s shocking 64-61 home loss to Northwestern as a 12½-point home favorite. The Boilermakers have followed up a four-game winning streak by losing two of their last three, and they’re mired in a 3-6 ATS funk, including four consecutive non-covers on the road (1-3 SU).
The Spartans sport a 14-3 Big Ten record (9-7-1 ATS), including 6-2 in East Lansing (3-5 ATS). Purdue is in second place at 11-6 (8-9 ATS), including 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS as a Big Ten visitor.
The Boilermakers were the last team to defeat Michigan State, rolling to a 72-54 home win as a four-point favorite on Feb. 17. Purdue has won the last two meetings and is 5-0 ATS in the last five. The host has won the last five regular-season meetings and is 8-1 in the last nine (6-3 ATS). Also, the favorite has cashed in 10 of the last 13 series clashes.
Although they’ve failed to cover in six of nine overall and four straight on the road, the Boilermakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after a SU win and 5-2 ATS in their last seven after a non-cover. The Spartans have cashed in four straight after an ATS setback and four of five on Sunday, and they’re 8-2-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite.
The under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in this rivalry and 5-1 in the last six in East Lansing. Additionally, Michigan State is on “under” streaks of 7-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-0 at home and 5-1 after a SU win, while Purdue carries “under” trends of 4-1 on Saturday, 12-2 against winning teams and 4-0 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
Northwestern (17-11, 12-11-1 ATS) at Ohio State (19-9, 14-10 ATS)
Northwestern has boosted its hopes for the school’s first-ever NCAA Tournament berth by winning three straight games, including Wednesday’s stunning 64-61 upset of No. 19 Purdue as a 12½-point road underdog. The Wildcats’ winning streak comes on the heels of a 1-4 SU slump, but they’ve alternated spread-covers in their last 10 lined games (all in the Big Ten).
Ohio State put the brakes on a 1-4 slump by edging Iowa 60-58 Tuesday, barely covering as a one-point road favorite. The Buckeyes have followed a five-game ATS winning streak by going just 2-3 ATS in their last five
The Wildcats are 8-9 SU and ATS in conference, including 3-5 SU and ATS on the road. Ohio State is 9-8 in the Big Ten (10-7 ATS), but just 3-6 as a visitor (5-4 ATS).
Northwestern ended an 11-game losing skid to Ohio State with a last-second 72-69 victory as a one-point home underdog back on Feb. 18, with freshman John Shurna hitting the game-winning three-pointer with 3.3 seconds to play. The ‘Cats have cashed in five of the last seven head-to-head clashes, going 2-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Columbus.
The Wildcats are on ATS runs of 5-2 on Sunday and 7-4 against winning teams, while the Buckeyes are on pointspread upticks of 7-3 overall (all in league action), 4-1 at home, 4-1 after a SU win and 11-4 after a spread-cover. However, Ohio State has failed to cover in six of its last seven on Sunday, and Northwestern is 2-7 ATS as a single-digit underdog this season.
The over is 12-4 in Northwestern’s last 16 games (all in the Big Ten) and 5-2 in its last seven on the road, while Ohio State has topped the total in six of its last eight in Columbus. Conversely, the under is on stretches of 6-3-1 for Northwestern on Sunday, 7-2 for Northwestern versus winning teams, 15-5 for Ohio State on Sunday and 7-3 for Ohio State after a spread-cover. Finally, seven of the last eight series clashes in this rivalry have stayed below the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(18) Clemson (23-6, 12-11-1 ATS) at (10) Wake Forest (23-5, 14-10 ATS)
Wake Forest has won three in a row, five of its last six and six of its last eight, most recently knocking off Maryland 65-63 as a 1½-point road favorite on Tuesday. Despite that spread-cover, the Demon Deacons have split the cash in their last 12 games. However, they have won five straight home games (4-1 ATS), all against ACC foes.
Clemson ended a two-game SU and ATS slide with Tuesday’s 75-57 rout of Virginia, covering as a 14½-point home favorite. The Tigers have split their last eight games both SU and ATS, going 2-2 SU and ATS on the road.
The Demon Deacons started the season 16-0, including three straight wins and covers to begin the ACC campaign. However, they are now 10-5 in conference (9-6 ATS) and in sole possession of third place in the league standings, one game ahead of Clemson (9-6, 9-5-1 ATS) and Florida State. Wake Forest is 14-1 at home (8-3 ATS in lined contests), including 7-1 hosting ACC foes (5-2 ATS), while the Tigers are 4-3 SU and ATS in ACC roadies.
The winner is 14-0-1 ATS in Clemson’s 15 conference games and 14-1 ATS in Wake’s ACC contests. In fact, the winner has covered in 16 of the Deacons’ last 17 games.
Wake Forest handed the Tigers their first loss of the season back on Jan. 17, rolling to a 78-68 road win as a 2½-point underdog, a result that ended the home team’s 4-0 SU run in this rivalry. The Demon Deacons have covered in seven consecutive meetings with Clemson, and they’ve won four straight at home, covering in the last two. Finally, the visitor is on an 8-2 ATS roll in this series, and the ‘dog has cashed in four of the last five.
The Tigers are 3-0 ATS as a single-digit underdog.
Clemson is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-1 on the road, 5-1 on Sunday and 4-1 against winning teams. Likewise, the Demon Deacons have topped the total in six of eight overall, four straight at home and six of seven on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST and OVER
MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNAMENT
(at St. Louis, Mo.)
Northern Iowa (22-10, 15-13 ATS) vs. Illinois State (24-8, 16-12 ATS)
Illinois State advanced to its second straight Missouri Valley Conference tournament title game by crushing Creighton 73-49 as a three-point underdog Saturday, one day after dominating Evansville 78-68 as a 4½-point chalk at the Scotttrade Center. The Redbirds, who had closed the regular season on a three-game losing skid, are on a 6-2 ATS roll (3-0 ATS in the last three).
Northern Iowa advanced to the conference championship game for the first time since 2004 by pounding Bradley 76-62 as a 1½-point chalk Saturday. The top-seeded Panthers, who beat Indiana State 73-69 as a 6½-point favorite Friday, have followed up a 1-4 SU slump by winning four in a row, and they’re on a 4-1 ATS roll.
Northern Iowa swept the regular-season series with a pair of narrow victories, winning 59-55 as a 2½-point home favorite and 69-67 in overtime as a 6½-point road underdog last Saturday. The Panthers are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three regular-season meetings, but the Redbirds eliminated Northern Iowa in the second round of last year’s conference tourney 56-42 as a 4½-point favorite.
In last year’s Missouri Valley Conference championship game, Illinois State got crushed by Drake 79-49 as a 2½-point underdog.
Illinois State is on ATS runs of 6-2 overall and 6-1 in the Missouri Valley, but it is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 neutral-site games, 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog and 3-6 ATS in its last nine against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Northern Iowa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in road/neutral-site games.
The under is 9-3 in Illinois State’s last 12 neutral-site contests, 5-1 in its last five as an underdog at neutral sites and 8-2 in its last 10 after a SU win, but otherwise the Redbirds are on “over” streaks of 4-2 overall and 4-1 in conference. Also, Northern Iowa has topped the total in five straight games and eight of its last nine.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Orlando (45-16, 38-22-1 ATS) at Boston (49-14, 34-29 ATS)
Orlando takes a three-game winning streak to TD Banknorth Garden in Boston for a key Eastern Conference clash with the Celtics.
The Magic struggled to knock off New Jersey on Friday, prevailing 105-102 but coming up short as a 9 ½-point home favorite, marking just the ninth time in 61 contests that the winner failed to cover the spread in an Orlando game. The Magic, who have scored 105, 106 and 111 points during their three-game run, are shooting for their first four-game winning streak since winning seven in a row from early to mid January. They’re 12-8 SU since that streak.
The Celtics shot down LeBron James and the Cavaliers 105-94 as a 1½-point home favorite on Friday, moving to 20-5 SU in their last 25 games. However, despite halting a four-game ATS slide, Boston is still just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 contests, including 1-5 ATS at home. Doc Rivers’ team has been scoring in bunches lately, averaging 108.1 ppg in its last seven.
The Magic have been solid on the highway this year, going 21-9 SU and 20-9-1 ATS, but they got clobbered in their first visit to Beantown, losing 107-88 as an 8½-point underdog on Dec. 1. The Celtics have won 26 of 31 home games, but are a mediocre 17-14 ATS.
Seven weeks after posting a 19-point home win over the Magic, Boston went to Orlando and cruised to a 90-80 victory as a 4½-point underdog. That ended a seven-game winning streak by the home team in this rivalry (6-1 ATS). Boston has covered in five of the last seven meetings, going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three at home, and the defending champs are 13-3 ATS the last 16 times they hosted Orlando. Finally, the home team has gotten the money in 21 of the last 28 clashes.
Orlando has failed to cover in seven of its last nine after an outright win, but otherwise the Magic enjoy nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 28-13 overall, 55-26-3 on the road, 55-27-3 as an underdog, 42-16-1 as a pup of less than five points, 45-17-1 after a non-cover, 16-6 against winning teams, 4-0 on Sunday and 40-13 after allowing 100 points in the previous game.
The Celtics are in pointspread droughts of 1-5 at home, 1-7 when playing on one day of rest and 3-7 after a SU victory. However, they’re on ATS rolls of 8-1 when coming off a double-digit win, 5-1 as a favorite of less than five points, 9-4 after a spread-cover and 17-8 on Sunday.
The over has cashed in four of the last five meetings in Boston. Also, the over is on runs of 5-2 for the Magic overall, 4-1 for the Magic on the road, 7-3 for the Magic as an underdog, 4-1 for the Magic on Sunday, 5-1 for the Magic versus the Eastern Conference, 13-3 for Boston at home, 5-0 for Boston on Sunday, 5-1 for Boston against Eastern Conference foes and 6-2 for Boston when playing on one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Phoenix (34-28, 24-35-2 ATS) at San Antonio (41-20, 31-28-2)
The Suns hope to salvage a disappointing four-game road trip with a win at the AT&T Center when they face the Spurs for the fourth and final time this season.
After beginning the trip with losses at Orlando and Miami on back-to-back nights, Phoenix went to Houston on Friday and fell short 116-112, but it did cover as a 5½-point underdog after failing to cash in Orlando and Miami. The three-game hiccup comes after a 6-2 SU and ATS run, but the Suns have now dropped four straight road games (1-3 ATS) and seven of nine on the highway (3-6 ATS).
The Spurs are coming off Friday’s 100-78 rout of Washington, covering as a 12½-point home favorite to end a 1-3 SU and ATS slump. San Antonio, which has played just five home games in its last 19 contests, is on a 19-4 SU run at the AT&T Center, going 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Despite Friday’s result in Houston, the SU winner is still 24-1-2 ATS in the Suns’ last 27 games, including 14-1-1 ATS in the last 15 on the highway. Also, the winner has covered in each of San Antonio’s last 13 games and is 17-1-1 ATS in the last 19 (5-0 ATS at home). Finally, the winner is on an 8-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
The road team has won all three meetings in this rivalry. Phoenix took the first one 103-98 in a pick-em contest at San Antonio in the season-opener for both teams, but the Spurs won the last two in the desert 91-90 as a 2½-point underdog and 114-104 as a 1½-point pup. The ‘dog is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes (playoffs included), and Phoenix is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to San Antonio.
The Suns are in ATS declines of 2-5 on the highway, 3-7 versus the Southwest Division, 9-20 against teams with a winning record 1-5 as a road underdog, 2-8-1 as a pup of 5 to 10½ points, but they have covered in five of their last six against the Western Conference.
The Spurs have failed to cash in four of their last five on Sunday and are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 when coming off a double-digit win. However, San Antonio is on positive pointspread stretches of 12-5-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-0 as a chalk, 8-2-1 against the Pacific division, 7-2-1 against the Western Conference, 8-3-1 versus teams with a winning record and 7-3-1 when playing on one day of rest.
The over for Phoenix is on runs of 9-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 5-1 against the Western Conference, 8-3 versus the Southwest Division, 18-6 as an underdog and 5-2 on Sunday. Similarly, the Spurs are on “over” tears of 9-4 at home, 8-2 against the Western Conference, 4-1 on Sunday and 8-3-1 when playing on one day of rest. Also, five of the last eight series meetings between these rivals have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and OVER
